Turkiye has long insisted on being a part of Europe鈥檚 defense programs and having a say in how Europe shapes its security. Yet, for decades, European states viewed Turkiye mostly through the lens of its EU membership bid and political disagreements. But today, geopolitical matters 鈥� especially growing security threats 鈥� are shifting that perspective.

Now, both Ankara and Brussels recognize that they face similar security concerns. This growing sense of mutual insecurity was highlighted this month, when Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler said that European allies must not only spend more on defense, but also do so wisely 鈥� by including Turkiye鈥檚 fast-growing defense industry in their planning.

Although many EU states have long been hesitant to increase their defense spending, US President Donald Trump pushed them to rethink and open their wallets. One major step was last month鈥檚 creation of a €150 billion ($173 billion) EU defense fund, known as the Security Action for Europe scheme, which is aimed at strengthening its arms industry.

A few years ago, the idea of integrating Turkish defense companies into Europe鈥檚 security systems might have seemed unrealistic. But several factors have changed that. Turkiye鈥檚 falling-out with the US over the F-35 program, increasing regional threats, Russia鈥檚 aggression in Ukraine and Europe鈥檚 doubts about long-term US security commitments have all helped bring Ankara and the EU closer together and make EU-Turkiye defense cooperation more appealing. The combination of these factors has created a major shift in their relationship, which is now reflected in more regular meetings between Turkish and European defense officials.

Turkiye has been building strong bilateral defense ties with individual EU countries for some time

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Turkiye has been building strong bilateral defense ties with individual EU countries for some time. The recent cooperation between Italy鈥檚 Leonardo and Turkiye鈥檚 Baykar 鈥� the company behind the well-known Bayraktar drones 鈥� is a significant example.

Ankara is already joining several EU defense initiatives, such as the European Sky Shield Initiative. It is also involved in joint projects 鈥� like making ammunition with Poland, supplying military vehicles to Romania and working on naval programs with Portugal. This bilateral cooperation signals a new type of partnership between Turkiye and the EU states that goes beyond traditional parameters.

Turkiye鈥檚 success in building a strong defense industry 鈥� especially with its popular Bayraktar TB2 drone 鈥� has impressed many in Europe and boosted Ankara鈥檚 leverage. Turkiye also has key strategic advantages. It has NATO鈥檚 second-largest army and a central position near the Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East 鈥� areas where Europe needs security support. Its ability to help counterbalance Russian influence adds to its importance. With these advantages, Turkiye not only wants to sell its defense products to EU states, it wants a real seat at the table, shaping Europe鈥檚 defense strategy and becoming part of the continent鈥檚 industrial defense base.

However, this potential partnership comes with some challenges. Not all EU countries are on the same page when it comes to Turkiye鈥檚 integration into Europe鈥檚 defense programs. The main challengers are Greece and Cyprus. Their concerns are not related to today鈥檚 security realities, but rather to long-standing issues in Turkish-Greek relations.

Despite these divisions, the insecurity caused by the broader global uncertainty is pushing many EU countries to move ahead with defense partnerships with Turkiye. They are trying to persuade Greece to accept closer cooperation with Turkiye in this field, emphasizing the bigger picture: a stronger and more self-reliant European security system.

Thus, the pros of integrating Turkiye into EU defense programs are related to Turkiye鈥檚 geographical position, its military strength, growing defense industry and mutual security concerns in a time of global instability. On the other hand, the cons and challenges are related to the fragmented EU approach. While some member states prioritize security and pragmatism, seeing Turkiye as essential for regional stability, some have long-standing issues with the country. Moreover, some remain wary of certain Turkish foreign policy moves that clash with EU interests, such as in Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean and Syria.

Genuine political will and a clear sense of mutual benefit is required to achieve strategic goals in the defense realm

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Given these challenges, genuine political will and a clear sense of mutual benefit is required to achieve strategic goals in the defense realm. What is meant by mutual benefit is that, while the EU keeps talking about the importance of Turkiye鈥檚 role in European security, it is not offering any commitments relating to Ankara鈥檚 membership of the bloc.

The EU鈥檚 often ambiguous approach raises questions about its sincerity and how it perceives Turkiye. European heavyweights such as Germany 鈥� which sees Turkiye鈥檚 support to Europe鈥檚 security as significant 鈥� often seem to turn a deaf ear and a blind eye when it comes to the issue of Turkish membership.

Turkiye鈥檚 experience with the 2016 migrant deal with the EU further deepens this skepticism. At the time, the agreement had raised hopes in Ankara that Turkiye鈥檚 role within the EU framework would be strengthened. However, several factors have made both sides doubtful about the other鈥檚 direction.

According to Ankara, inclusion in EU defense planning not only strengthens its own economy and geopolitical standing, but it also increases its bargaining power in other policy areas with the EU. From Turkiye鈥檚 perspective, defense ties could serve as a steppingstone to resetting broader relations with the EU after years of political friction. There are now even larger expectations that are likely to guide the Turkiye-EU defense partnership. Thus, if a new era is to begin, lessons from the past must guide the new EU approach so that this momentum will not end up as a missed opportunity.

鈥� Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye鈥檚 relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz